Isifinyezo: Uma sibheka emuva emakethe yensimbi ngesonto eledlule, intengo yensimbi ibonise umkhuba wokusebenza okuguquguqukayo, imikhiqizo eminingi yensimbi yaqala yawa bese iphinde ibuyele ebangeni lamaphuzu angu-30-50;ngezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye namafutha, inkomba ye-iron ore dollar ikhuphuke ngamaphuzu ayi-6, futhi inkomba yentengo yensimbi ye-scrap ikhuphuke ngamaphuzu angama-51, i-Coke Price Index yehla ngamaphuzu ayi-102.
Uma sibheka phambili emakethe yensimbi yaleli sonto, kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokubonisa ukuphindaphindeka okubuthakathaka ekusebenzeni kwesimo, izizathu eziyinhloko: Okokuqala, umoya oshisayo oshisayo we-macro-surface uvunguza, ngakolunye uhlangothi i-Central Bank ukunciphisa i-quasi. -iphuzu eligcwele lengxenye yephesenti, isamba sokukhululwa kwesikhathi eside esingaba yi-1.2 trillion yuan;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwezindlu ezithengiswayo kancane kancane kuyadamba, ngaphezu kwalokho, uNobhala Wezezimali wase-US u-Yellen naye wavela e-US trump ukuze abeke amanani e-China okuholela emiphumeleni emibi yokwehla kwamandla emali ngokweqile, kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukise ukuzethemba;Okwesibili, isitokwe sensimbi saqhubeka sincipha, futhi ukwehla kwanda, izindawo eziningi kakhulu, ezinye izinhlobonhlobo zento yokuntuleka kokucaciswa, ezinye izinhlobo zokwenyuka kwamanani;okwesithathu, ngokombono wezobuchwepheshe, imikhiqizo eqediwe ye-rebound akufanele iphele.
Isimo sezinto ezihlukahlukene zokusetshenziswa
1. Insimbi Yensimbi
Kuleli sonto, kubonakala sengathi ngemva kokulungiswa kabusha kwamanye amachweba ase-Australia, izimayini zase-Australia zaqala ukwenza umgomo wokuphela konyaka, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi kukhuphuke kakhulu, kwafinyelela izinga eliphezulu ngonyaka.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukufika kwensimbi yasekhaya kwaphindeka kakhulu emazingeni aphansi.Ohlangothini lwesidingo, i-tangshan iqinise imikhawulo yokukhiqiza futhi yandisa inani lokuhlolwa nokulungiswa kwesithando somlilo esisha, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi isilinganiso sokukhiqizwa kwansuku zonke kwensimbi eshisayo sizoqhubeka nokwehla kuleli sonto;ukwanda kokulethwa kwezidingo kanye nesidingo siyehla, igebe phakathi Kokunikezwa Kwensimbi Yensimbi kanye nesidingo liyakhula, kanye nezinga lezitoko ezinqwabelene echwebeni liyakhula.Ngakho-ke, ngokombono oyisisekelo, kuleli sonto inani lentengo yensimbi liye laguquguquka kancane futhi lahamba kancane.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yentuthuko yakamuva yesidingo semikhiqizo eqediwe, amanani ensimbi asebenze kakhulu, enikeza ukusekelwa okuthile emakethe emnyama.Ngakho-ke, uma kubhekwa ndawonye, kuleli sonto amanani e-iron ore cishe azobuswa ukushintshashintsha okubanzi.
(2) Ikhola Lamalahle
(3) izicucu
Njengoba intengo yemikhiqizo eqediwe izinzile uma kuqhathaniswa, umdlandla wezigayo zensimbi zokukhiqiza ukhula kancane, ukusetshenziswa kwezinsimbi ezilahliwe kukhombisa ukuthuthuka okuncane, futhi njengoba umuzwa wemakethe ukhula, ukufika kwezinsimbi zensimbi ezigayweni zensimbi kuncipha kakhulu, futhi isitoko yensimbi eyizinsimbi ezivela ezigayweni zensimbi ezinezinqubo zokugeleza okufushane ziyehla ikakhulukazi, ukulungiswa nokwandisa imisebenzi kuyasebenza ngokuqhathaniswa;inqubo ende iphansi ekusetshenzisweni, izimpahla eziningi zilethwa ekuqaleni, izinga lamasheya liningi kakhulu, futhi isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona mayelana nokulungiswa kwentengo sinamandla, futhi ngenxa yokwanda okuqhubekayo kwe-scrap-molten. Intengo yensimbi njengamanje, umfutho wokwanda kwensimbi eyisihlakala awanele, izinzuzo zizonqunyelwa.Izintengo ze-Scrap kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale phakathi kwebanga elincane ngesonto elizayo.
(4) ibhilidi
Inzuzo ye-billet iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, isimo sokuhweba ezimakethe ze-billet sisuka "Kuphuthuma" siye "kuzolile".Ngaphansi kwesimo sokunikezwa kwe-billet okuzinzile, kunzima ukukhulula isidingo se-billet ezigayweni eziginqikayo ezansi nomfula kusukela endaweni yokubuka ukukhiqizwa kwemvelo, nangenxa yezici ezifana nokulethwa, ukungenisa echwebeni kanye nokuthengiswa kwangaphambili okuqondile, njll.Kulesi simo, ngesikhathi esifushane, i-steel billet inventory noma yehlisa (ingenisa i-Shugang) , kodwa izinsiza zendawo zinzima ukukhombisa i-reservoir (ngokusekelwe kusisekelo sokuhlinzeka) , ukuhweba kwemakethe kuyashintsha kakhulu okuholwa yi-volatility yekusasa. izinguquko zemizwelo yemakethe.Izintengo eziphelele ezilindelwe ze-billet zesikhathi esifushane ziyaqhubeka nokugcina uhla oluncane lokulungisa.
Isimo semikhiqizo yensimbi ehlukahlukene
(1) insimbi yokwakha
Ngesonto eledlule izisekelo eziyisisekelo zemakethe yensimbi ziyaqhubeka nokulungisa, isimo sengqondo semakethe sisimama kancane kancane.Ngokombono oyisisekelo, ukunikezwa kwensimbi yokwakha kanye nokwanda kwesidingo, ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo kubonakala ngokucacile, izinqolobane zilethe ukwehla okukhulu, uma isidingo esiseduze sokugcina isimo samanje, kuleli sonto kulindeleke ukuthi liwe ngaphansi kwezinga elifanayo. isikhathi ngonyaka odlule.Lokhu ngokungangabazeki kuyoba inzuzo enkulu.Izintengo zensimbi yokwakha zizoqhubeka nokukhuphuka kuleli sonto, kodwa ukwehla kancane kancane kwesidingo enyakatho, ukusebenza kwemakethe eseningizimu, amanani emakethe yesifunda angase ahlukaniswe, igebe lentengo ohlelweni lokulungisa lingakhula.
(2) amapuleti aphakathi nendawo nasindayo
Uma sibheka emuva emakethe yasekhaya yangesonto eledlule yamapuleti aphakathi nendawo nasindayo, isimo sisonke besiqale sikhuphuke saphinde sehla.Esikhathini esifushane, okugxilwe kakhulu kulezi zici ezilandelayo: izinga lokuhlinzeka, kunomehluko othile kwiphethini yokuhlinzeka esikhathini esizayo okwamanje, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqiza kulindeleke ukuthi kube khona ngoDisemba, kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi. , umkhawulo wokukhiqiza wama-Olimpiki Wasebusika engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ozayo uzoba nomthelela othile ekukhiqizweni kwepuleti elimaphakathi;kusixhumanisi sokujikeleza, umehluko wamanje wamanani wesifunda wepuleti eliyithafa mncane, ukushoda kwezinsiza kusebenza kubi, futhi kunesikhala esithile se-alloy ephansi, umehluko phakathi kwentengo yezindleko ukusuka enyakatho kuya empumalanga yeChina kanye intengo yemakethe ilinganiselwa ku-100 Yuan/ton, okuzoba umthombo oyinhloko oya eningizimu.Kulindeleke ukuthi umehluko wamanani phakathi kwe-alloy ephansi ne-plain plate uzobonisa umkhuba wokulungisa esikhathini esizayo.Ohlangothini lwesidingo, ngasekupheleni konyaka, isidingo sonyaka sizokwehla, okuwumkhuba, nakuba okwesikhathi esifushane noma ngenxa yezinguquko ngezikhathi ezithile ekushintshashintsheni kwentengo, kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, isidingo ngeke siphinde sibuyele. ngokuphawulekayo.I-Integrated Forecast, kulindeleke ukuthi kuleli sonto izintengo zamapuleti awugqinsi ezinhlobonhlobo zokushaqeka eziqhubekayo.
(3) Ukuginqika okubandayo nokushisayo
Ngokombono wokuhlinzeka, izinzuzo zomshini wokugaywa ezishisayo sezibuyile ngokusobala esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, kodwa umphumela uwonke usavinjwe ngokusobala yinqubomgomo, okwenza isivinini sokutakula sihambe kancane, ngakho-ke, okwamanje, ukuhlinzekwa okuphelele kuzohlala kuphansi ngoDisemba;kusukela kuma-Steel Mills'oda atholwe ngoDisemba, kukhona intuthuko enkulu kuma-hot-line oda futhi igebe selingcono;futhi umugqa obandayo awukwazi ukuxazululwa ngempumelelo ngenxa yenkinga yama-auto chips, ukufunwa yi-real estate drag, ukwehla kokusetshenziswa, ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kwempahla yasekhaya, ukusungulwa kwemakethe nezinye izici, okuholela egebeni le-steel order kunzima ukulithola. ngcono.Ngakho-ke kuthrendi yakamuva, ingcindezi yesistimu ebandayo isenkulu kunesistimu yokushisa.Kusukela kumpendulo engezansi, i-oda ayizange ibonise ukuthuthukiswa okuphawulekayo, kodwa i-inventory yayo ephansi, idinga nje ukuthatha ukulethwa kwesimo.Ngaphezu kwalokho, inzuzo entsha ye-oda ingaba, ngakho-ke ukuzimisela kwesitoreji sasebusika kuye kwanda, ngoba ukusetshenziswa okucatshangelwayo kuzothuthukiswa.Ngokocwaningo lukaMysteel uqobo, ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi kusalindeleke ukuthi kuzinzile ngoDisemba kusukela ngoNovemba.Impendulo evela emaphethelweni aphansi ikhombisa ukuthi imali enkulu emkhakheni wezokwakha isalokhu iqinile futhi ayikhombisi izimpawu zokulula ngasekupheleni konyaka, kanti eminye imikhakha kulindeleke ukuthi iphinde igcwaliswe ngoZibandlela ukuze ivale inzuzo yakamuva.Sekukonke: Isidingo sizinzile okwesikhashana, ukukhuphuka kokuhlinzeka akubonakali, ukuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo kuveza ibhalansi eqinile.Kuyo yonke imboni yokugoba, ingcindezi esuka phansi ukuya phezulu ukuze iqhube, isimo samanje sokusungula esiphansi, kunzima ukwakha ukuzethemba emakethe kuzosekelwa, akulindelekile ukuthi kuqinisekiswe ngempumelelo kuleli sonto, ngoba intengo namanje ukulungiswa kokushaqeka.
(4) insimbi engagqwali
Njengamanje, ukunikezwa kuhlala kujwayelekile noma kusezingeni eliphezulu, kepha isidingo sibuthakathaka.Izigayo eziningi zensimbi zisathatha ama-oda ngoDisemba.Abahwebi namasheya angaphansi komfula ahamba kancane ekupheleni konyaka.Amathuba okuqhuma kwesidingo ngaphambi konyaka mancane amathuba okuba, amanani entengo angama-304 kulindeleke ukuthi aqhubeke eguquguquka futhi ebuthakathaka kuleli sonto.Njengamanje, ukukhiqizwa okuningi kwangempela kwensimbi ekulahlekelweni, ukwehla kwentengo yesikhathi esizayo nakho kulinganiselwe.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Dec-07-2021